October’s headline numbers point to a consumer who is still spending—just not always in in ways we might expect. All Stores rose 2.4% YOY, while All Stores less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies climbed 5.1% YOY. For a month with the World Series in Canada, an event that typically concentrates spend into experiences, this is modest growth. October’s consumer demand likely shifted from at-home consumption to out-of-home occasions, diluting gains in several store-based categories while boosting hospitality.

The October results for Foodservices and Drinking Places are not yet released. We are cautiously optimistic that those figures will show the offset reflecting packed watch parties, licensed venues, and event-driven footfall.  This will help to explain why traditional at-home categories underperformed. JCWG will publish a shorter, special edition of the Canadian NRB on Foodservices and Drinking Places in the first week of January to validate this thesis.

Retail Food and Beverage results hint at substitution into hospitality. Grocery Stores were up only 2.6% YOY, a soft print in an inflation-normalising environment. Meanwhile, Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores fell -5.1% YOY. Two dynamics likely explain this:

• Experience substitution: Consumers choosing bars and restaurants over stocking up for home viewing.
• The BC strike that disrupted alcohol distribution, suppressing October in-store sales.

Taken together, the data is consistent with a month where social, licensed consumption took share from retail channels. If Foodservices and Drinking Places post strong gains, it will affirm that October’s “modest” retail picture masked robust out-of-home spend.

For the first time in recent memory, Cannabis Retailers declined -1.0% YOY. This bears watching. Part of the weakness could rhyme with alcohol’s decline if a segment of consumers is embracing broader sobriety, not just trading between substances. Market structure matters, too: the initial post-legalisation rush produced dense store networks. In many trade areas, supply still exceeds sustainable demand, pressuring sales per store and accelerating rationalisation. The October downtick could be an early indication of a shakeout continuing into 2026.

Amid mixed discretionary categories, Clothing and Accessories Stores advanced 8.2% YOY, extending a strong 2025. We’re seeing positive reports across the fashion spectrum: Dynamite is up 31.6% YOY, Roots is up as well at 6.8% YOY, and many banners are citing both sales growth and healthy margins. Investment in store experience such as assortment curation, service, and visual presentation, appears to be paying off, supporting the view that Q3 strength is carrying into Q4 as shoppers seek fresh product and occasion-driven wardrobes.

As we approach the end of the year, JCWG is thinking about:

• Will Foodservices and Drinking Places show significant October growth, confirming the experience substitution thesis?
• What are the impacts of a later Black Friday on November cadence and December pull-forward?
• Which day will emerge as the busiest of the year—and will it be driven by in-store traffic or digital peaks?
• Is Cannabis’ October downtick a blip, or is full sobriety gaining traction across cohorts?
• How are YOU preparing your banners, categories, and stores for 2026’s demand shape?

For support with your 2026 retail strategy, reach out to the team at JCWG!

Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison

Sales for the Month of October	Oct-25	Oct-24	YOY
All Stores	72,453,802	70,730,575	2.44%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers	20,505,278	20,383,383	0.60%
Gasoline Stations	6,320,117	6,433,882	-1.77%
All Stores Less Automotive	45,628,407	43,913,310	3.91%
Food and Beverage Stores	13,252,345	13,054,942	1.51%
Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores*	9,537,695	9,295,782	2.60%
Convenience Stores	711,993	720,255	-1.15%
Specialty Food Stores	983,860	911,263	7.97%
Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores	2,018,797	2,127,642	-5.12%
Health and Personal Care Stores	6,176,325	5,939,257	3.99%
All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies	26,199,737	24,919,111	5.14%
General Merchandise Stores	9,812,903	9,348,167	4.97%
Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores	3,824,155	3,761,387	1.67%
Furniture Stores	1,213,976	1,215,232	-0.10%
Home Furnishings Stores	806,850	736,771	9.51%
Electronics and Appliance Stores	1,803,329	1,809,384	-0.33%
Clothing and Accessories Stores	4,026,746	3,740,024	7.67%
Clothing Stores	3,182,624	2,942,880	8.15%
Shoe Stores	407,363	409,798	-0.59%
Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores	436,758	387,347	12.76%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores	4,272,187	3,840,014	11.25%
Building Material and Garden Equipment	4,263,747	4,229,519	0.81%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers	2,963,150	2,589,881	14.41%
Cannabis Retailers	451,727	456,274	-1.00%
Foodservices and Drinking Places

Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison

Year-to-Date Sales Ending October	Oct-25	Oct-24	YTD
All Stores	691,382,850	660,513,382	4.67%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers	195,918,062	183,553,480	6.74%
Gasoline Stations	62,290,796	64,595,863	-3.57%
All Stores Less Automotive	433,173,992	412,364,039	5.05%
Food and Beverage Stores	130,652,737	127,248,553	2.68%
Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores*	93,500,031	90,513,860	3.30%
Convenience Stores	6,928,799	7,229,377	-4.16%
Specialty Food Stores	9,373,767	8,762,472	6.98%
Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores	20,850,142	20,742,846	0.52%
Health and Personal Care Stores	59,153,353	55,126,616	7.30%
All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies	243,367,902	229,988,870	5.82%
General Merchandise Stores	91,590,554	87,558,145	4.61%
Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores	36,048,974	34,417,486	4.74%
Furniture Stores	11,911,662	11,433,488	4.18%
Home Furnishings Stores	7,241,062	6,766,452	7.01%
Electronics and Appliance Stores	16,896,250	16,217,547	4.18%
Clothing and Accessories Stores	35,913,591	32,642,818	10.02%
Clothing Stores	28,002,843	25,297,944	10.69%
Shoe Stores	3,864,530	3,830,122	0.90%
Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores	4,046,215	3,514,753	15.12%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores	39,358,976	36,268,682	8.52%
Building Material and Garden Equipment	40,455,807	39,101,736	3.46%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers	26,515,775	23,731,056	11.73%
Cannabis Retailers	4,594,144	4,252,318	8.04%
Foodservices and Drinking Places

Ecommerce Sales

	Oct-25	Oct-24
Ecommerce Sales, YTD	39,933,311	37,803,651	5.63%
Ecommerce Sales, YOY	4,101,766	4,251,816	-3.53%

Regional Sales, Year to Date Comparison

Region	Year-to-Date, 2025	Year-to-Date, 2024	YTD
British Columbia	85,000,432	79,388,838	7.07%
Vancouver	42,834,106	39,607,961	8.15%
Alberta	80,323,663	76,284,170	5.30%
Prairies*	40,956,831	39,274,948	4.28%
Ontario	229,704,750	219,233,785	4.78%
Toronto	101,444,125	98,225,191	3.28%
Québec	138,235,752	132,698,758	4.17%
Montréal	68,293,918	65,902,241	3.63%
Atlantic Canada	42,478,360	40,780,716	4.16%
Territories	2,229,266	2,121,593	5.08%

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