Waiting Game for the US Retail Market
Release date: July 15, 2022
The US retail market saw another month of growth in June, with All Stores increasing by 8.9% YOY, and All stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies up 7.5% YOY.
This seems like good news, but we feel this is not sustainable. Essential categories like Grocery and Gasoline Stations are still up significantly (8.9% YOY and 49.9% YOY respectively), but these numbers can be deceiving. The inflation rate on both these categories are also some of the most rapidly growing, with Grocery seeing a 10.4% inflation YOY and Gasoline Stations seeing a 59.9% inflation YOY. This translates to two consumer trends:
- US consumers are shopping differently at grocery stores, trading down in certain categories and brands.
- US consumers are driving less.
These trends show that the US consumer is at a point of drastic change, and the traditional big box stores with large retail footprints/many national brands on the outskirts of suburbia are not going to be seeing the traffic they once did. Bed Bath & Beyond is a perfect example of this. The big box retailer has recently ousted their CEO after a decrease of 25% in their sales compared to 2021, losing nearly three-quarters of their market value since March. The category (Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores) is also seeing less impressive growth, with a growth of merely 4.8% YOY.
With US retail markets still seeing unsustainable, and misleading, growth, we suspect retailers to be preparing for this sweeping consumer shift. This month we are asking:
- Who are US consumers going to stop shopping with?
- What will climbing interest rates do to retail performance?
- When will US retail markets start to level off?
- Where will consumers decide to cut back the most?
- How have YOU prepared for the change in consumer behaviour?
Reach out to JCWG for insights on your consumer’s behaviour and to gain a deeper understanding of how they have changed. Join us next month to see if July levels off the uncertain US retail market.
US Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
|Sales for the Month of June||2022||2021||2022/2021|
|Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers||132,269||132,297||-0.02%|
|All Stores Less Automotive||486,577||454,920||6.96%|
|Food and Beverage Stores||78,614||73,120||7.51%|
|Health and Personal Care Stores||32,463||32,617||-0.47%|
|All Stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies||375,500||349,183||7.54%|
|Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores||47,930||44,931||6.67%|
|General Merchandise Stores||67,055||65,694||2.07%|
|Department Stores (Excluding Leased Departments)||10,714||10,798||-0.78%|
|Clothing and Accessories Stores||24,664||24,618||0.19%|
|Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores||19,497||19,621||-0.63%|
|Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores||12,295||11,730||4.82%|
|Electronics and Appliance Stores||7,202||7,891||-8.73%|
|Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores||9,316||9,100||2.37%|
|Miscellaneous Store Retailers||16,423||14,266||15.12%|
|Food Services and Drinking Places||88,072||77,430||13.74%|
US Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
|Year to Date Sales Ending June||2022||2021||2022/2021|
|Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers||772,044||750,400||2.88%|
|All Stores Less Automotive||2,774,577||2,540,918||9.20%|
|Food and Beverage Stores||455,225||422,895||7.64%|
|Health and Personal Care Stores||193,608||186,441||3.84%|
|All Stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies||2,125,744||1,931,582||10.05%|
|Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores||255,910||240,963||6.20%|
|General Merchandise Stores||386,310||378,228||2.14%|
|Department Stores (Excluding Leased Departments)||60,764||58,956||3.07%|
|Clothing and Accessories Stores||141,659||128,722||10.05%|
|Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores||112,503||111,932||0.51%|
|Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores||70,318||68,355||2.87%|
|Electronics and Appliance Stores||42,185||43,577||-3.19%|
|Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores||50,024||49,363||1.34%|
|Miscellaneous Store Retailers||89,806||74,275||20.91%|
|Food Services and Drinking Places||492,664||404,785||21.71%|
US Consumer Confidence Index (2010 = 100)
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