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UNITED STATES

NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN

October US Retail Sales Stall Waiting for Black Friday Discounts

Release date: November 15, 2023

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US retail sales grew a mere 2.7% YOY for All Stores in October as interest rates in the US are at a 22 year high. All stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies are up 4.1% YOY, mainly thanks to Non-Store Retailers as Amazon’s latest Prime Day sales outpaced previous years.

2023’s October Prime Day, which over-performed 2022’s October Prime Day, further displayed trends in the retail industry. This year’s shoppers opted for essential items compared to big ticket items which is further reflected in most other discretionary categories in October. Data from Numerator showed that:

  • Nearly 60% of items sold were under $20, with only 4% of products purchased being over $100,
  • Though the largest category was Apparel and Shoes, the other in the top three were Home Goods and Household Essentials, and
  • Following Prime Day, 59% of shoppers said they might shop Black Friday and 57% Cyber Monday.

The trends from October’s Prime Day demonstrate a price conscious consumer who purchased essentials on Prime Day but may be waiting until Black Friday/Cyber Monday to make larger purchases.

Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliances Stores experienced further decline in October, down -6.7% YOY. It seems that this will continue for the time being, as Home Depot is projecting a decrease in same store sales from 3-4%. This is the first time since 2009 that they have projected a decrease in annual sales, when the US housing market crashed. Similar to what was realized through Prime Day this year, this seems to also be a category where consumers are delaying their larger purchases. These purchases are also frequently financed/purchased through credit cards, which are both highly affected by changes in interest rates.

In addition to furniture, the majority of discretionary categories were also down in October. As consumers become more and more price sensitive, discounts become more attractive. As such and from Prime Day surveys, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals around the corner, JCWG believes that customers were likely delaying these discretionary categories simply because they were waiting to see what is offered for Black Friday. Many brands have already started their Black Friday sales by early November and more continue to roll out. JCWG will be closely monitoring this year’s sale season, and our US NRB report for November will offer a glimpse into these insights.  

Consumers are clearly waiting for the upcoming Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals. With deep discounts expected, it can be difficult to break through the noise, so creativity in your marketing and branding is key. In October the team is thinking about:

  • What categories will the gain the most sales lift over Black Friday/Cyber Monday?
  • Why do customers think that retailers’ Black Friday deals will be better than Prime Day?
  • Where are customers going to make the majority of the Black Friday/Cyber Monday purchases, online or in-store?
  • How have YOU prepared to draw customers during the busy holiday season?

For support in reviewing and refining your strategy, reach out to the retail strategy team at JCWG!

US Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison

Sales for the Month of OctoberOct-23Oct-22YOY
All Stores701,548683,1982.69%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers130,389126,7372.88%
Gasoline Stations58,57063,103-7.18%
All Stores Less Automotive512,589493,3583.90%
Food and Beverage Stores82,19882,0640.16%
Grocery Stores73,96273,8850.10%
Health and Personal Care Stores37,70034,02510.80%
All Stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies392,691377,2694.09%
Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores42,06743,517-3.33%
General Merchandise Stores73,46472,9080.76%
Department Stores (Excluding Leased Departments)10,41111,095-6.16%
Clothing and Accessories Stores24,74324,787-0.18%
Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores17,93719,216-6.66%
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores10,50211,885-11.64%
Electronics and Appliance Stores7,4357,3311.42%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores7,8548,168-3.84%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers15,80415,6481.00%
Nonstore Retailers118,113106,99710.39%
Food Services and Drinking Places92,70986,0287.77%

US Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison

Year-to-Date Sales Ending OctoberOct-23Oct-22YTD
All Stores6,851,4896,644,6343.11%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers1,338,5691,289,6033.80%
Gasoline Stations553,792628,032-11.82%
All Stores Less Automotive4,959,1284,726,9994.91%
Food and Beverage Stores811,355788,8952.85%
Grocery Stores731,217710,6602.89%
Health and Personal Care Stores355,462328,4388.23%
All Stores Less Automotive, Food, Pharmacies3,792,3113,609,6665.06%
Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores422,025434,309-2.83%
General Merchandise Stores706,417686,4632.91%
Department Stores (Excluding Leased Departments)103,923106,329-2.26%
Clothing and Accessories Stores242,562239,3951.32%
Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores183,103190,432-3.85%
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores110,593116,700-5.23%
Electronics and Appliance Stores72,51073,732-1.66%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores81,15780,9410.27%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers152,597149,1172.33%
Nonstore Retailers1,101,9901,019,3728.10%
Food Services and Drinking Places902,460809,63711.46%

US Consumer Confidence Index (2010 = 100)

Join the discussion on this release here.


past national retail bulletins


  • US NRB February 2023

    March 15, 2023

  • US NRB January 2023

    February 15, 2023

  • US NRB December 2022

    January 18, 2023

  • US NRB November 2022

    December 15, 2022

  • US NRB October 2022

    November 16, 2022

  • US NRB September 2022

    October 14, 2022

  • US NRB August 2022

    September 15, 2022

  • US NRB July 2022

    August 17, 2022

  • US NRB June 2022

    July 15, 2022

  • US NRB May 2022

    June 15, 2022

  • US NRB April 2022

    May 17, 2022

  • US NRB March 2022

    April 14, 2022
Browse older…

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