Canadian

National Retail Bulletin

March experienced a 3.7% YOY growth across All Stores and 3.3% YOY across All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies. However, the underlying pattern appears increasingly price-led rather than volume-driven as households continue absorbing higher everyday costs. In this environment, topline growth is being supported by inflationary pricing and selective spending priorities, potentially masking softer underlying unit demand and a more cautious consumer backdrop.

The overall pullback in big-ticket items is particularly telling. Electronics and Appliance Stores fell -12.5% YOY, while the overarching Furniture, Home Furnishing, Electronics, and Appliance Stores declined -8.2% YOY and Furniture Stores dropped -5.3% YOY. Two variables likely explain this trend. First, transport costs have remained elevated as fuel prices continue to rise globally, increasing delivery costs for bulky/heavy goods and forcing retailers into sharper margin-versus-volume trade-offs. Second, consumers can defer these purchases; when the cost to purchase a sofa or install a major appliance climbs, many simply choose to wait. The result is a cautious, “fix-not-replace” mindset taking hold across households. Notably, Gas Stations rose 16.0% YOY, a move driven primarily by price shocks linked to escalating geopolitical tensions rather than an increase in driving demand, as higher crude and refined product prices filtered through into retail fuel costs and, more broadly, transportation-linked expenses across the consumer economy.

Food inflation reached 4.1% YOY in February while Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores rose 1.1% YOY. March patterns suggest shoppers continued to optimize rather than expand their grocery baskets. General Merchandise Stores grew 8.7% YOY, likely capturing a larger share of weekly food trips as consumers prioritize value and one-stop convenience. Specialty Food rose 5.1% YOY, signalling that resilient niches, such as premium, dietary, or occasion-based purchases, are continuing to grow despite persistent price increases. At the same time, consumers appear increasingly willing to trade down on staples while selectively preserving spend in categories tied to convenience, wellness, or small indulgences.

A cold start to spring deferred seasonal shopping, with Building Material and Garden Equipment down -3.5% YOY. When patios stay covered and gardens remain cold, visits and basket sizes across outdoor living, lawn and garden, and early home improvement categories tend to soften. Weather-related delays also likely compressed the normal start-of-season merchandising cycle, pushing promotional activity later into the quarter. Retailers may therefore see a shorter, more promotionally competitive spring selling window as consumers delay purchases until conditions materially improve.

Overall, March retail performance reflects a consumer environment defined less by broad-based demand and more by adaptation. Households continue prioritizing essentials, delaying discretionary purchases, and seeking value amid elevated fuel, food, and transportation costs.

As we move into spring, JCWG is thinking about:

• How has the volatility of the global conflicts affected gas prices and broader transport costs?
• How has global variance in flight availability and prices influenced opting for limiting travel, and what does that mean for local retail and services?
• How will colder-than-normal April weather affect seasonal categories and the timing of demand?
• Will Montreal vs. Toronto and Vancouver see differential growth tied to upcoming FIFA-related activity and infrastructure spend?
• How are YOU adapting your strategy in a market where growth is increasingly price-driven rather than volume-led?

For support with your 2026 retail strategy, reach out to the team at JCWG!

Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison

Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison

Ecommerce Sales

Regional Sales, Year to Date Comparison