Canadian
National Retail Bulletin
January Canadian Retail Sales Muted by Returns and Caution
January delivered a muted 1.8% YOY across All Stores, a slow start to 2026. Discretionary momentum remains intact: All Stores less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies rose 5.6% YOY, signalling that core, non-essential spend is still growing. The drag stems from timing and turbulence more than a sudden stop in demand.
Two forces dominated the month. First, January’s wave of post‑holiday returns was larger than usual. Omnisend (via Retail Insider) flagged sharp increases versus the average week in 2025; 39% in apparel, 19% in games, and 19% in pets and animals; pulling December enthusiasm back out of January receipts. Second, geopolitical instability and supply‑chain ambiguity continued from 2025 into 2026, prompting retailers to be cautious on inventory, pricing, and promotions.
Clothing and Accessories grew 5.8% YOY, a respectable result but well off the 11.0% YTD in 2025. The gap likely reflects the post-holiday return trend dampening net sales. There may have been some lift from last‑minute preparations for February’s Winter Olympics: Lululemon national‑team merchandise and cold‑weather performance wear saw heightened social media posts (“unbox my kit”), nudging demand in late January. However, pricing pushback and divisive design feedback may have tempered full‑price sell‑through, keeping promotional intensity elevated and limiting upside.
With the housing market, especially condos, under pressure, categories tied to furnishings, renovations, and sales continued to struggle. Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores fell −2.3% YOY; Building Material and Garden Equipment declined −2.9% YOY. These sectors are tightly coupled to transaction volumes, renovation confidence, and home equity effects: fewer moves mean fewer big‑ticket replacements; tighter budgets defer “nice‑to‑have” refreshes. The Bank of Canada’s hold at 2.25% in January offers some hope: rate stability can impact refinance math, but the pass‑through to retail goods typically lags. For now, shoppers are trading down, stretching replacement cycles, and prioritizing essential maintenance over discretionary projects.
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers declined −4.2% YOY, reflecting a rise of global conflict risks, tariff uncertainty, and consumer wait‑and‑see. While the immediate impact was likely small in January, shoppers (especially prospective EV buyers) are reacting to headlines about Chinese vehicles entering Canada under a new trade agreement. The initial 49,000 units at lower tariffs represent only ~3% of the market, but the signalling matters: buyers anticipating sharper price points may delay purchases to reassess total cost of ownership. If pricing pressure intensifies and CUSMA tensions evolve, the medium‑term mix and margin landscape could shift meaningfully.
As we move into spring, JCWG is thinking about:
- What are the effects of GLP‑1s on retail spending, specifically food and beverage and fashion?
- With a decline already occurring in alcohol, how will the new tax in Ontario drive these sales down further?
- What is the actual impact on sales from the major increases in oil prices?
- How are YOU preparing to adapt your supply chain to continued trade tensions?
For support with your 2026 retail strategy, reach out to the team at JCWG!
Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of January | Jan-26 | Jan-25 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 60,929,063 | 59,827,049 | 1.84% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 15,116,973 | 15,777,345 | -4.19% |
| Gasoline Stations | 5,794,624 | 6,138,967 | -5.61% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 40,017,466 | 37,910,737 | 5.56% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 12,668,824 | 12,119,603 | 4.53% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,526,401 | 9,013,175 | 5.69% |
| Convenience Stores | 603,690 | 612,553 | -1.45% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 825,283 | 781,803 | 5.56% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 1,713,449 | 1,712,073 | 0.08% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 6,193,837 | 5,760,614 | 7.52% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 21,154,805 | 20,030,520 | 5.61% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 8,363,874 | 7,747,083 | 7.96% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,313,315 | 3,392,474 | -2.33% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,058,890 | 1,093,853 | -3.20% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 641,807 | 641,050 | 0.12% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,612,619 | 1,657,572 | -2.71% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 2,896,562 | 2,731,144 | 6.06% |
| Clothing Stores | 2,288,373 | 2,162,290 | 5.83% |
| Shoe Stores | 268,704 | 268,639 | 0.02% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 339,484 | 300,215 | 13.08% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 3,804,976 | 3,300,353 | 15.29% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 2,776,077 | 2,859,466 | -2.92% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,649,260 | 2,209,772 | 19.89% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 466,074 | 418,325 | 11.41% |
| Foodservices and Drinking Places | 7,718,263 | 7,316,724 | 5.49% |
Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date Sales Ending January | Jan-26 | Jan-25 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 60,929,063 | 59,827,049 | 1.84% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 15,116,973 | 15,777,345 | -4.19% |
| Gasoline Stations | 5,794,624 | 6,138,967 | -5.61% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 40,017,466 | 37,910,737 | 5.56% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 12,668,824 | 12,119,603 | 4.53% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,526,401 | 9,013,175 | 5.69% |
| Convenience Stores | 603,690 | 612,553 | -1.45% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 825,283 | 781,803 | 5.56% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 1,713,449 | 1,712,073 | 0.08% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 6,193,837 | 5,760,614 | 7.52% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 21,154,805 | 20,030,520 | 5.61% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 8,363,874 | 7,747,083 | 7.96% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,313,315 | 3,392,474 | -2.33% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,058,890 | 1,093,853 | -3.20% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 641,807 | 641,050 | 0.12% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,612,619 | 1,657,572 | -2.71% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 2,896,562 | 2,731,144 | 6.06% |
| Clothing Stores | 2,288,373 | 2,162,290 | 5.83% |
| Shoe Stores | 268,704 | 268,639 | 0.02% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 339,484 | 300,215 | 13.08% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 3,804,976 | 3,300,353 | 15.29% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 2,776,077 | 2,859,466 | -2.92% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,649,260 | 2,209,772 | 19.89% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 466,074 | 418,325 | 11.41% |
| Foodservices and Drinking Places | 7,718,263 | 7,316,724 | 5.49% |
Ecommerce Sales
| Jan-26 | Jan-25 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecommerce Sales, YTD | 3,894,940 | 3,764,543 | 3.46% |
| Ecommerce Sales, YOY | 3,894,940 | 3,764,543 | 3.46% |
Regional Sales, Year to Date Comparison
| Region | Year-to-Date, 2026 | Year-to-Date, 2025 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 8,617,844 | 7,936,104 | 8.59% |
| Vancouver | 4,515,268 | 4,326,360 | 4.37% |
| Alberta | 8,203,156 | 7,936,104 | 3.37% |
| Prairies* | 3,988,121 | 3,994,983 | -0.17% |
| Ontario | 22,517,753 | 22,211,142 | 1.38% |
| Toronto | 10,172,675 | 10,084,975 | 0.87% |
| Québec | 13,150,460 | 12,818,799 | 2.59% |
| Montréal | 6,495,099 | 6,448,351 | 0.72% |
| Atlantic Canada | 4,218,351 | 4,186,211 | 0.77% |
| Territories | 233,379 | 225,686 | 3.41% |
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