It is no surprise that this year’s holiday season will look dramatically different than any other. The combination of inflation, supply chain issues and a multi-demic creates a unique environment, that for many, would predict multiple things:

Customers are looking for a deal,
Customers are shopping early, and
Customers are shopping online.

Interestingly enough, only one of these is being predicted for the 2022 holiday season.

Customers are Shopping Online

First, it is best to look at some historical data. Previous sales data shows that from October to December 2016-2021 total sales are steadily increasing, as expected. Online sales are also increasing, but differently. It may be a surprise that during the 2020 holiday season, though it was a drastic increase, online sales made up only 7.4% of total retail sales. This fell to 6.9% of total holiday sales in 2021, which is understandable as a result of less restrictions from COVID-19 compared to the previous year.

Based on a study conducted by Leger and the RCC, customers are planning to spend less time browsing online, but the plan to spend the same amount online (37% of total spend) vs. in-store (63% of total spend). In 2021, customers expecting to spend 44% of their time researching in-store and 56% online. In 2022, these have flipped, with 55% of research being expected to be in-store and only 45% online. This illustrates that customers are expecting to return to brick-and-mortar stores this holiday season.

2022 is a very different environment than any other holiday season. Online sales are down -11.7% YOY (as of September 2022), and projections suggest that 2022 will end with a decrease regardless of the holiday season.

Closer to home, within the Downtown Yonge Business Improvement Association, this trend has been evident. Pedestrian traffic during the long weekend in October (Thanksgiving) not only surpassed the pandemic years, but 2019 as well.

Customers are Shopping Early

Based on a study preformed by Leger and the RCC, customers are also not changing any habits on when they are planning to shop. November remains the busiest month for holiday purchases, as it has been in the past.

Anecdotally, the JCWG team has visited various shopping centres across the Greater Toronto Area, with most not looking much busier than normal (see image of CF Eaton Centre in Toronto above). With customers who were surveyed saying they were planning to visit stores in-person this year, it seems that people may be waiting for some last minute, pre-Boxing Day sales.

Customers are Looking for a Deal

Based on the Leger/RCC study, the top three factors that customers are looking for are:

Lower prices and discounts (52%)
Holiday sales or promotions (40%)
Free Shipping (37%)

This year, we are also expecting a decrease in overall spending during the holidays, up to -17%. This decrease does not necessarily mean that people will be buying less items/gifts, but possibly that people are expecting to see better pricing and plan to take advantage of these discounts.

October to December sales from 2016 to 2021 show an increase over this time, and the percentage of total sales increasing as well, as shown below:

JCWG will be releasing the totals for the 2022 holiday season in February, 2023, once all holiday sales data has been released. Subscribe to our newsletter to make sure you don’t miss this important update!

Real Estate & Community Master Planning

Your vision for a thriving business is integral to any economic infrastructure; your customers are at the centre of all planning and decisions. Creating a clear and concise roadmap that factors every facet of the customers’ experience is crucial for success. Your plan must consider vendors, tenants, landlords, developers, government agencies, and other facilities that your retail space will benefit or affect. Your collaboration with the JCWG team will ensure a detailed master plan that includes clear objectives supported by extensive research that considers every component of your business community.

Resources and Techniques:

Retail demand calculations
Trade area analysis
Market gaps and opportunities
Zoning and space requirements
Retail supply audits
Trade area psychographics and demographics
Pedestrian and traffic counts

Expert Witness & Advisory Services

There are many moving parts in a customer-centric business, and you may encounter legal setbacks and disputes at any stage of your business journey. Your collaboration with the JCWG team will provide you with expert reports and testimony in trials and hearings while advising legal counsel to ensure that you have the necessary resources required to manage and support litigation impacting every aspect of your case.

Resources and Techniques:

Discovery
Expert report preparation
Trial testimony
Business strategy review
Determination of damages

Concept Development & Space Planning

Concept Development services include background research, branding, right-sizing, capital budgeting all the way to detail design. JCWG can work from an idea or join a design process to enlighten, validate and support implementation. A vacant property can also be best filled from a concept development exercise.

It may be your idea, our research results, or both. Once a potential retail concept is identified is needs to be developed and validated. The JCWG team has the capacity to develop the concept characteristics from aesthetic & functional planning, design standards, location requirements, capital requirement and validation through demand, trade area and benchmarking analysis.

Resources and Techniques:

Functional planning and programming
Concept design and development of design standards
Detailed design services including base building requirements
Marketing plan and strategy execution
Management and staffing selection
Tenant mix and product curation
Short term and long term KPI definition and monitoring
Operational audits
Expertise sourcing and partnering
Site selection, design development and project enduring, operations human resources, start up inventories, and capital costing
Physical programming and concept design

Branding & Marketing

Winning brand equity must happen on so many platforms in today’s retail world with a consistent message and quantifiable return. JCWG understands comprehensive internal and external brand messaging that identifies the uniqueness and market advantage of a retail busines. Your collaboration with the JCWG team will strengthen your marketing strategy to build stronger connections with your audience through your brand.

Resources and Techniques:

Brand assessments
Unique selling proposition, noble purpose, and differentiation authentication
Brand and marketing implementation
Communications plans
Insightful transition to row market share from research
Customer feedback and product evaluation

Research & Insights

The amount of data available to customer-centric businesses can be overwhelming. Understanding the metrics’ influence on strategy is imperative to success. An experienced eye can save a lot of time and misguided investment to provide relevant and actionable insights.

The JCWG project team collaborative approach provides access to unparalleled experience to mine and capitalize on.

Resources and Techniques:

Custom market studies and benchmarking
Market sounding and listening
Case studies
Global resources through our International partners, The Ebeltoft Group
Demand assessment and market share analysis
Daytime population data, tracking, and analyzing where consumers are and when
Quantitative consumer data gathering, both published and unpublished, from various external sources and our personal database gathered from industry projects
Qualitative data gathering and insights
Interviews (consumer and executive), focus groups, online surveys, and social listening
Employee and customer motivational metrics
Research validation and interpretation to insights

Retail Strategy

JCWG supports retail-related businesses with a proprietary approach that is based on a strategic model developed through nearly 50 years of experience guiding clients. Retail strategy must translate vision into a plan which addresses the client’s resources to implement. JCWG focuses on delivering strategies with vision and is supported by a ‘nuts and bolts’ approach to operationalizing. JCWG applies strategic thinking processes and market research to develop or revitalize your strategy.

Resources and Techniques:

Definition and prioritization of client goals, needs and wants
Thought starter and results oriented workshops to enhance planning team input and integration of JCWG research and expertise
Current situation snapshot, trade area analysis, market gap, and competitive audits (physical and digital)
Tenant and product curation, clustering, and right sizing
Tailored processes to match client cultural, operational, and financial needs
Productivity metrics and comparisons
Active, fun, and energized learning, sharing, and strategizing experiences
Financial modelling incorporating research findings
Risk analysis and mitigation
Threat and opportunity analysis
Omnichannel platform harmonization
Stakeholder and financing approval support

In-Store Experiences and Discounts are Key for Holiday 2022 Success

Customers are Shopping Online

Customers are Shopping Early

Customers are Looking for a Deal

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